Sun, Jan 24, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 5, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 112 | 212 | 212 | 536 |
| MIN | 13 | 115 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21MINZach PariseAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:02SJSRyan DonatoAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:39SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Timo Meier, Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:26SJSNoah GregorAssists: Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 16:47MINNick BjugstadAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 7:20MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 18:12SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:31SJSMatt NietoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:54SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:34MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P1 19:45MINNick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:17MINKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43SJSErik Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:41SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16SJSMarcus Sorensen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:32SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:32MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:34SJSMarcus Sorensen: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:48MINCarson Soucy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Gregor – Gambrell7:17
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Kane – Hertl – Leonard10:28
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Couture – Donato – Labanc9:52
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Marleau – Sorensen – Nieto7:35
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSimek – Knyzhov6:56
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic13:32
xG 0.25–0.69 (26%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro12:33
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Johansson – Fiala4:43
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Fiala2:48
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Kaprizov3:05
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:14
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba11:54
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Soucy13:25
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon11:28
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).