Sun, Jan 24, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 13 | 110 | 217 |
| DAL | 16 | 111 | 15 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:55DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 6:32DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Anton Khudobin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 14:55NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 4:51DALJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 9:59NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:51DALMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P1 11:52DALMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P1 14:28NSHNick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33NSHRocco Grimaldi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:38NSHMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 13:04DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:56NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:54DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Granlund – Arvidsson3:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Richardson – Grimaldi – Trenin2:31
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Kunin7:14
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Grimaldi2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro12:01
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis12:33
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:53
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Kero9:13
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Dellandrea7:02
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dowling – Caamano – Robertson3:59
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hintz – Gurianov9:24
xG 0.44–0.76 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Pysyk9:20
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:27
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:26
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).