Mon, Jan 25, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 1, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 114 | 012 | 136 |
| VAN | 212 | 29 | 314 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31VANBrandon SutterAssists: Alexander Edler · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:08VANTyler MotteGWGAssists: Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 11:58OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Thomas Chabot, Mike Reilly · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 12:28VANTanner PearsonAssists: Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 17:44VANBrandon SutterSHAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 12:12VANQuinn HughesAssists: Bo Horvat, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–5
- P3 15:50VANOlli JuoleviAssists: Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.01 xG1–6
- P3 19:06VANBrandon SutterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:43VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:58OTTChristian Wolanin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:47VANAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:17VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:31VANJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 10:10VANAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:10OTTJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:14OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:14VANZack MacEwen: Interference2 min
- P3 13:14VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:39OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:37VANAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:37OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk6:29
xG 0.96–0.68 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Dadonov – Paul4:01
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Watson – Tierney – Paul3:03
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Tierney – Brown – Paul2:25
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Wolanin5:29
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev6:00
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Wolanin4:53
xG 0.23–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Hoglander9:54
xG 0.85–0.50 (63%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Sutter – Virtanen – MacEwen5:56
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte9:39
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson11:19
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Hughes10:53
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Edler – Schmidt14:21
xG 0.97–0.71 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 3–0
- Myers – Hughes4:07
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).