Tue, Jan 26, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 017 | 26 | 01 | 230 |
| BOS | 111 | 115 | 06 | 14 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:58BOSNick RitchiePPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.29 xG0–2
- P3 9:47PITJason ZuckerAssists: Jared McCann, Drew O'Connor · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 16:44PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:49BOSCraig SmithGWGAssists: David Krejci, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:18BOSConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:03BOSChris Wagner: Interference2 min
- P2 2:55BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:15PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:52PITBrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:00BOSCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:45BOSJakub Zboril: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:39BOSNick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:12
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Blueger – McCann – Tanev8:21
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen10:40
xG 0.35–0.50 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Jankowski – O'Connor3:54
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin7:28
xG 0.42–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Marino4:16
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph3:32
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic7:21
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith3:36
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork7:20
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Coyle – Ritchie2:24
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – McAvoy14:49
xG 0.83–0.48 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Clifton – Carlo12:31
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Miller – Zboril9:44
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).