Tue, Jan 26, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 114 | 09 | 234 |
| WSH | 117 | 19 | 111 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 15:33NYINoah DobsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 10:01NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 17:21WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Daniel Carr, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 19:33WSHJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:12NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:19WSHCarl Hagelin: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:24WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 19:03WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:59NYILeo Komarov: Boarding5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Pageau – Johnston5:48
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:53
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Komarov – Bailey – Pageau2:27
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Bellows8:51
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Pelech2:45
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:40
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock2:22
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Panik – Sheary10:59
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:24
xG 0.67–0.18 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Sgarbossa – Carr – Sprong8:18
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana10:11
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon14:30
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
- Chara – Schultz14:34
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Siegenthaler12:10
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).