Tue, Jan 26, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 4, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 37 | 08 | 111 | 426 |
| WPG | 211 | 09 | 413 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Mikko Koskinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:14WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Adam Lowry, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P1 9:13EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Patrick Russell, Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 11:16EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P1 14:37WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Adam Lowry, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 3:19WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Paul Stastny, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 5:26WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 6:46WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Derek Forbort, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 18:10EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:08WPGAndrew CoppENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:16WPGPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:38EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:50WPGMason Appleton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:34EDMAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:27EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P2 18:06EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:43EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:07
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:14
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Turris – Kassian8:28
xG 0.32–0.61 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Archibald – Khaira – Russell7:40
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones13:21
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Russell – Barrie11:19
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Larsson – Nurse2:48
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Copp – Ehlers10:15
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton8:39
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:50
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Harkins – Gustafsson5:09
xG 0.06–0.14 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Stanley10:13
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Forbort – Pionk15:01
xG 0.99–0.63 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).