Tue, Jan 26, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 14 | 15 | 221 |
| MIN | 06 | 013 | 114 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:02LAKKurtis MacDermidAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 1:09MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 5:08LAKCarl GrundstromGWGAssists: Trevor Moore, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:38MINIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:56MINCarson Soucy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:46LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10LAKTrevor Moore: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:09LAKCarl Grundstrom: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Athanasiou – Lizotte3:57
xG 0.35–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Amadio – Grundstrom – Moore7:05
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Vilardi – Andersson7:19
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo7:13
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Roy – Clague14:41
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:44
xG 0.70–1.21 (37%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:33
xG 0.92–0.03 (97%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Rask – Fiala – Kaprizov2:32
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Rask – Hartman – Sturm6:03
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Parise – Bjugstad – Fiala9:28
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:10
xG 1.10–0.54 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Suter – Spurgeon15:08
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Soucy12:26
xG 0.44–0.48 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).