Tue, Jan 26, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 1, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 06 | 09 | 00 | 121 |
| DAL | 06 | 111 | 04 | 11 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Taro Hirose, Givani Smith · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:27DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Denis Gurianov, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 1:32DALJason DickinsonGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Denis Gurianov · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:46DETBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:54DALTy Dellandrea: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:23DETFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:18DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:03DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P2 16:10DALJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:51DALRhett Gardner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowling won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Namestnikov – Mantha11:10
xG 0.69–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Brome7:57
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Nielsen – Glendening10:08
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Rasmussen – Hirose5:24
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek15:39
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Djoos – DeKeyser11:18
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Stecher15:47
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Gurianov – Dellandrea2:55
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Dellandrea7:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dowling – Dickinson – Gurianov8:24
xG 0.02–0.17 (8%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Kero12:04
xG 0.13–0.43 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Hanley8:57
xG 0.01–0.00 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen11:54
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:51
xG 0.14–0.58 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).