Tue, Jan 26, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 16 | 115 | 330 |
| COL | 316 | 413 | 013 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39SJSRyan DonatoAssists: Kevin Labanc, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:15COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Erik Johnson, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:01COLBrandon SaadAssists: Cale Makar, Andre Burakovsky · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 19:21COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 1:32COLValeri NichushkinSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
- P2 5:48COLSamuel GirardAssists: Tyson Jost, Kiefer Sherwood · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–5
- P2 7:44SJSNoah GregorAssists: Dylan Gambrell, Timo Meier · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–5
- P2 13:30COLDevon ToewsAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
- P2 15:01COLBrandon SaadAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.13 xG2–7
- P3 12:43SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryan Donato, Kevin Labanc · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 18:26SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:17COLBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:55SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:48SJSJohn Leonard: Bench2 min
- P3 1:33SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:15SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:28COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:44COLRyan Graves: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:22COLRyan Graves: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:22COLRyan Graves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:45COLJ.T. Compher: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Donato – Labanc8:28
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Marleau – Sorensen – Nieto4:31
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Nieto – Meier – Gambrell2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Meier – Gregor – Gambrell5:31
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSimek – Knyzhov13:12
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro12:38
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 8–20goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Ferraro2:02
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:42
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin8:42
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Bellemare – Jost – Sherwood7:42
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:55
xG 0.53–0.66 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:31
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
- Johnson – Graves9:18
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Girard – Byram12:05
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).