Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise

St. Louis Blues 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Vegas Golden Knights

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.

VGK winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL381904042525
VGK117111213051446

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:17VGKAlex TuchAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:08STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 8:11STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P1 10:10STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P2 1:42VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P2 10:44STLJordan KyrouUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
  7. P3 10:36VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
  8. P3 16:35VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Alec Martinez, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. STL David Perron scored
  2. 2. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
  3. 3. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
  4. 4. VGK Shea Theodore scored
  5. 5. STL Brayden Schenn scored
  6. 6. VGK Alex Tuch stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 8:05VGKKeegan Kolesar: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:32STLMarco Scandella: Holding2 min
  3. P2 4:31VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 5:33STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 13:29VGKMark Stone: Interference2 min
  6. P2 15:44VGKMark Stone: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 15:44STLJustin Faulk: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 0:56STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 2:56VGKAlec Martinez: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 3:19STLDavid Perron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 5:01VGKKeegan Kolesar: Too many men on the ice2 min
  12. P3 8:54STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min · PPG
  13. P3 10:15STLMarco Scandella: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VGK
46% to win54% to win
← STL attackVGK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barbashev won the faceoff against Nosek
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLVGK
25Shots on goal46
2.9Expected goals4.8
48Shot attempts83
35Faceoffs won31
5Power plays6
17Penalty minutes15
30Hits20
16Blocked shots14
4Giveaways8
7Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSchenn – Schwartz – Kyrou7:51

    xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1

  2. Hoffman – Bozak – Thomas4:24

    xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1

  3. Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford11:10

    xG 0.33–0.66 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1

  4. Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev7:55

    xG 0.39–0.87 (31%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKrug – Parayko4:13

    xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  2. Scandella – Faulk3:15

    xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1

  3. Parayko – Mikkola3:10

    xG 0.04–0.06 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:07

    xG 0.86–0.36 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 2–2

  2. Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:37

    xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

  3. Pacioretty – Stephenson – Tuch2:04

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0

  4. Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:17

    xG 0.42–0.44 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMartinez – Theodore13:48

    xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 21–9goals 1–2

  2. Hague – Whitecloud7:05

    xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

  3. Theodore – Whitecloud2:02

    xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VGK 4.8 xGSTL 2.9 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VGKSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #41 of 868 this seasonSwing 2.41 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50VGK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.

VGK winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).