Wed, Jan 27, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 123 | 07 | 013 | 143 |
| VAN | 17 | 320 | 18 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06VANTyler MotteAssists: Tyler Myers, Jay Beagle · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 8:16OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 1:16VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:29VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 17:16VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 11:46VANTyler MotteAssists: Jay Beagle · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:11OTTJosh Norris: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:48VANJake Virtanen: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 12:39VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:15VANAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:11OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:27OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:40VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:49
xG 0.94–0.30 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White11:12
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Stepan – Watson – Paquette7:47
xG 0.07–0.42 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Tierney – Brown – Stützle8:53
xG 0.07–1.12 (5%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Chabot4:33
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Zaitsev2:36
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev11:55
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Roussel – Motte9:17
xG 1.20–0.32 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Sutter – Virtanen – MacEwen5:54
xG 0.18–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:34
xG 0.83–0.72 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander8:54
xG 0.17–0.88 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Chatfield11:52
xG 1.06–0.41 (72%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Myers – Schmidt12:32
xG 0.51–0.33 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Edler – Myers3:06
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).