Thu, Jan 28, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 115 | 19 | 014 | 11 | 339 |
| BUF | 15 | 04 | 115 | 01 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44NYRRyan StromeAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:38BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 16:10NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 4:47BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:47NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:50NYRBrendan Lemieux: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:31BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:57NYRRyan Lindgren: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:32BUFMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:17NYRColin Blackwell: Interference2 min
- P2 14:17BUFJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:11NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:27NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:46BUFJeff Skinner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Rieder
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière6:20
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin7:11
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Howden – Lafrenière2:19
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Howden – Kakko3:48
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller12:39
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Miller3:22
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Smith – DeAngelo9:44
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel5:00
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Olofsson – Cozens3:45
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Hall – Cozens3:04
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Sheahan – Hall2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin11:24
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Irwin – Montour16:25
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:28
xG 0.07–0.72 (9%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).