Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 310 | 09 | 011 | 330 |
| WSH | 08 | 514 | 11 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:50NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:08NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 17:39NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 9:07WSHConor ShearyAssists: John Carlson, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:20WSHConor ShearyAssists: Zdeno Chara, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 11:11WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Carl Hagelin, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 14:16WSHJohn CarlsonPPGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 18:30WSHZdeno CharaAssists: Justin Schultz, Michael Sgarbossa · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 19:41WSHTom WilsonENAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:08WSHGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P1 12:39NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:50WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:56NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:48WSHRichard Panik: Interference2 min
- P3 18:12NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:12NYIMathew Barzal: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sgarbossa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Bellows – Wahlstrom5:47
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal13:30
xG 0.60–0.52 (53%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:28
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–2
- Komarov – Pageau – Wahlstrom2:37
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:31
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 19–17goals 2–2
- Greene – Dobson12:57
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Leddy – Dobson3:23
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Panik – Sheary8:19
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Backstrom – Wilson – Vrana13:40
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway13:32
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
- Sgarbossa – Carr – Sprong8:08
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – van Riemsdyk5:16
xG 0.32–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Schultz9:55
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Siegenthaler10:11
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).