Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 07 | 29 | 225 |
| MTL | 28 | 211 | 02 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Corey Perry, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 15:39MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:21MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 19:35MTLTyler ToffoliSHAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 18:42CGYMilan LucicAssists: Sam Bennett, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 19:37CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:13CGYJuuso Välimäki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40MTLPaul Byron: Interference2 min
- P2 19:54CGYMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:33MTLAlexander Romanov: Playing without a helmet2 min
- P3 10:19MTLBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:19MTLBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:19CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:44MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:44CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:26
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Mangiapane5:32
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nordstrom – Ryan4:14
xG 0.01–0.06 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Simon10:22
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin12:26
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson2:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki10:27
xG 0.11–0.27 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:29
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans9:40
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki10:24
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Toffoli – Kotkaniemi7:14
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Romanov12:05
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot12:06
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Petry – Edmundson10:29
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).