Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 119 | 07 | 137 |
| VAN | 210 | 19 | 16 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 10:49VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 4:32VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Braden Holtby · Snap, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 14:15OTTThomas ChabotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 1:47VANTanner PearsonAssists: Nils Hoglander, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:04OTTAustin Watson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:57VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:53VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:58OTTColin White: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:12OTTBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P3 4:28OTTJoshua Brown: Holding2 min
- P3 10:08VANJalen Chatfield: Interference2 min
- P3 10:08OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:08VANJalen Chatfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:39VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:10VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10VANAdam Gaudette: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Paquette – Chlapik5:48
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Tierney – Brown – Stützle2:39
xG 0.05–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk6:31
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle5:00
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev13:41
xG 0.85–0.56 (60%)attempts 23–8goals 1–2
- Coburn – Chabot2:43
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Brown3:21
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Hoglander8:10
xG 1.50–0.27 (85%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Sutter – Gaudette – MacEwen8:17
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte9:11
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:27
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Schmidt14:07
xG 2.16–0.46 (82%)attempts 18–21goals 2–0
- Benn – Hughes8:47
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Myers – Hughes2:18
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).