Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 215 | 114 | 335 |
| MIN | 310 | 112 | 16 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Nick Bonino, Carson Soucy · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:17MINKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 12:55MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 3:19LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 9:07LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Michael Amadio · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 18:38MINNick BjugstadGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
- P3 4:44MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 9:41LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Dustin Brown, Kale Clague · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:03LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:54LAKBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:51MINMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:12MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:01LAKKurtis MacDermid: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:34MINKevin Fiala: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 5:34MINKevin Fiala: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:09MINNick Bjugstad: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 2:30LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:03LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:03LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:03MINCarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:16MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:08MINKaapo Kahkonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Grundstrom – Moore2:45
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Amadio – Wagner2:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo6:36
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Brown – Vilardi – Andersson5:10
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Clague5:32
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Roy – Clague4:17
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson11:41
xG 0.11–0.42 (21%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov4:24
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek3:12
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Kaprizov3:49
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rask – Hartman2:46
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:26
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Cole – Soucy10:26
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:01
xG 0.66–0.43 (60%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).