Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 0, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 06 | 08 | 021 |
| COL | 06 | 012 | 320 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:55COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 11:53COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 18:54COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:52COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min
- P1 13:56SJSDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:23COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P1 16:44COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:19SJSEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:24SJSRyan Donato: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:30COLDevon Toews: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:46SJSNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hertl – Meier9:35
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Sorensen – Noesen7:55
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Nieto – Gregor – Gambrell8:51
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Couture – Donato – Labanc11:12
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Burns – Vlasic17:59
xG 0.67–0.93 (42%)attempts 20–23goals 0–1
- Simek – Knyzhov9:20
xG 0.14–0.52 (21%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Ferraro13:46
xG 0.41–0.85 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:26
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky8:10
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin3:34
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Jost – Sherwood2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram8:42
xG 0.65–0.16 (81%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram3:49
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar9:39
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).