Mon, Mar 22, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 1, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 17 | 03 | 116 |
| VGK | 114 | 06 | 415 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:42STLVince DunnAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 1:20VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 11:19VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Nicolas Hague, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 14:56VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.38 xG1–4
- P3 18:08VGKMark StonePPAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:33VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:44STLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:42STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:29STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Clifford – de la Rose – Joshua7:37
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:08
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford3:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou8:59
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Walman8:36
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dunn14:55
xG 0.37–0.71 (35%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Faulk – Walman3:48
xG 0.06–0.54 (9%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Kolesar – Roy9:58
xG 0.88–0.08 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:45
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Brown8:29
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Tuch12:26
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud13:45
xG 1.25–0.18 (88%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Holden – McNabb16:23
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Martinez – Theodore18:27
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).