Sat, Jan 30, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 111 | 215 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
| BUF | 07 | 114 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:03BUFEric StaalAssists: Taylor Hall, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 18:35NJDTy SmithPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:37NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Jack Hughes, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 2:18BUFTobias RiederAssists: Cody Eakin, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 10:56BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 14:41NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 2. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 3. BUF Rasmus Dahlin stopped
- 4. NJD Nikita Gusev stopped
- 5. BUF Victor Olofsson stopped
- 6. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:15NJDAndreas Johnsson: Interference2 min
- P1 12:15BUFEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:15BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:57NJDAndreas Johnsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:58NJDMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:05BUFTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
- P2 18:11BUFEric Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:55BUFJeff Skinner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:21NJDTy Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:08NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Hughes10:12
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Kuokkanen6:21
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Bastian – Hughes4:08
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Murray9:44
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Subban – Kulikov3:10
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Severson – Smith10:00
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Skinner – Lazar3:22
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Hall – Cozens11:18
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Skinner – Olofsson – Eichel3:42
xG 0.03–0.00 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Eichel – Thompson7:28
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen14:29
xG 0.94–0.33 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:17
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Montour – Jokiharju13:08
xG 0.05–0.78 (6%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).