Sat, Jan 30, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 019 | 115 | 29 | 00 | 343 |
| WSH | 17 | 210 | 05 | 11 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06WSHNicklas BackstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:22WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Brenden Dillon, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 10:03WSHRichard PanikPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 17:32BOSNick RitchiePPAssists: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:03BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:02BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 0:28WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:45WSHRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:43WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43WSHJakub Vrana: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:04WSHConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Ritchie – Kuhlman10:36
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 17–3goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:19
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork7:39
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic11:55
xG 0.25–0.85 (23%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZboril – McAvoy3:56
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Miller – Zboril13:41
xG 1.08–0.79 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Lauzon – McAvoy13:04
xG 0.77–0.57 (57%)attempts 26–11goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:38
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Panik10:52
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Sheary2:06
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Vrana10:40
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Siegenthaler12:21
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Chara – Carlson15:31
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk17:54
xG 0.47–1.27 (27%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).