Sat, Jan 30, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 02 | 13 | 111 |
| CAR | 27 | 213 | 06 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Martin Necas, Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:55CARVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 8:42CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 10:21CARRyan DzingelPPAssists: Martin Necas, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 9:36DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:53DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:02CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:43CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:39DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58DALMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:36CARJake Bean: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55DALJustin Dowling: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:30CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:45CARBrock McGinn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Hintz – Gurianov5:37
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Faksa – Dellandrea4:40
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Dickinson – Gurianov2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dowling2:00
xG 0.01–0.10 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:25
xG 0.13–0.18 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:08
xG 0.41–0.79 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Sekera – Lindell3:57
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Aho – Svechnikov10:44
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas8:07
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Dzingel – Lorentz6:15
xG 0.20–0.20 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Bean9:43
xG 0.71–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Pesce11:52
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Skjei10:56
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).