Sat, Jan 30, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 011 | 29 | 326 |
| TBL | 08 | 415 | 010 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:55NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Nick Cousins, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P2 3:33TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 6:41TBLCal FooteAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:05TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 17:27TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 7:00NSHMathieu OlivierPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 18:26NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 8:10NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:01TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:16TBLAnthony Cirelli: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:47TBLRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:41NSHMark Borowiecki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:26TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:14NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:33NSHMark Borowiecki: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:33NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:20NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11TBLBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19NSHDante Fabbro: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:19TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:27NSHMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:33TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:33NSHMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Cousins6:49
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Haula – Trenin – Olivier2:44
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson4:26
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Sissons – Kunin7:31
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning5:43
xG 0.58–0.09 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm3:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Benning2:13
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde8:31
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov5:34
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli9:51
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point10:03
xG 0.15–0.60 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev2:32
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn8:00
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:07
xG 0.01–0.06 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).