Sat, Jan 30, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 2, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 116 | 05 | 112 | 233 |
| MTL | 012 | 015 | 010 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 19:28CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:00MTLBrett Kulak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:03MTLAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:03CGYJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:03CGYRasmus Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:03MTLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:40MTLPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:44CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:14CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:03MTLTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:26CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:47MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:05MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:05CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P3 5:50CGYJosh Leivo: Holding2 min
- P3 10:48MTLBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lucic – Nordstrom – Ryan5:34
xG 0.33–0.40 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Leivo – Bennett9:22
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Mangiapane6:46
xG 0.18–0.53 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube10:45
xG 0.18–1.00 (15%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nesterov – Välimäki9:40
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin13:22
xG 0.41–0.79 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson9:20
xG 0.52–1.37 (27%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:09
xG 1.24–0.37 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans5:33
xG 0.62–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki5:43
xG 0.56–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Drouin – Suzuki3:22
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot12:30
xG 1.14–0.17 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson9:32
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Kulak – Romanov11:11
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).