Sat, Jan 30, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 214 | 112 | 27 | 533 |
| MIN | 16 | 010 | 04 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Samuel Girard, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:49MINMathew DumbaAssists: Jonas Brodin, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 19:43COLJoonas DonskoiPPGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 3:07COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 12:17COLBrandon SaadAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 14:55COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:57MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18MINCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57MINCarson Soucy: Cross checking double minor4 min
- P3 3:36MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:54COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:25MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJost – Sherwood – O'Connor8:15
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky8:25
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:48
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin6:35
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar8:09
xG 0.37–0.08 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Graves – Girard2:45
xG 0.13–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Graves – Timmins9:34
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek3:26
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov5:14
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Hartman3:34
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Sturm8:15
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon11:04
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba13:27
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
- Cole – Soucy12:32
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 3–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).