Sun, Jan 31, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 19 | 210 | 04 | 336 |
| PHI | 16 | 212 | 07 | 14 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:42PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:38NYINick LeddyPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:19PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 15:52PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Philippe Myers, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 1:03NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 6:27NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 4:22PHIKevin HayesPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:38PHIIvan Provorov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:11NYIAdam Pelech: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:54NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:25PHINolan Patrick: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22NYIMathew Barzal: Holding2 min
- P2 4:51PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:50PHINolan Patrick: Holding2 min
- P3 10:58PHIJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- OT 3:40NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal9:05
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Czarnik5:24
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:57
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Eberle – Nelson2:42
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Pelech2:36
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:32
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Leddy – Mayfield11:52
xG 0.25–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Farabee8:11
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 3–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman8:35
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Lindblom – Konecny10:00
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Patrick8:03
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Myers3:13
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers12:50
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov10:54
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).