Sun, Jan 31, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 17 | 110 | 00 | 325 |
| MIN | 110 | 111 | 111 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:19MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:28MINVictor RaskAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 3:31COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:09COLBrandon SaadAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 12:34MINVictor RaskAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 0:18MINJonas BrodinGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:49MINNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:52COLSamuel Girard: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:48COLBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:37MINNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:40MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:48MINNico Sturm: Holding2 min
- P3 12:55COLBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Landeskog won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kadri – Landeskog – Rantanen3:39
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Jost – O'Connor2:22
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky6:45
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:00
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram9:26
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Graves – Timmins2:02
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Makar5:29
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Rask – Kaprizov – Sturm6:08
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Hartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:43
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Bonino – Rau – Mayhew4:22
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Johnson5:55
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Soucy12:19
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon14:39
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 2–2
- Cole – Brodin2:35
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).