Mon, Feb 1, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 05 | 09 | 126 |
| NYR | 09 | 16 | 29 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05PITJason ZuckerAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 17:42NYRKevin RooneyAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 11:10NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:59NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:52PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:23NYRJonny Brodzinski: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:49NYRJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00NYRBrett Howden: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00PITKasperi Kapanen: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:34PITSam Lafferty: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:36NYRAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P2 13:38NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:49PITChad Ruhwedel: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:57PITChad Ruhwedel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:25NYRJulien Gauthier: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Kapanen8:45
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Blueger – McCann – Tanev4:37
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel8:40
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Lafferty – O'Connor4:15
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Marino2:03
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Ceci – Ruhwedel7:41
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Czuczman7:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Panarin – Lafrenière2:22
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière3:50
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich4:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Gauthier – Howden3:31
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Trouba3:17
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bitetto – Lindgren4:32
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fox – Miller3:16
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).