Mon, Feb 1, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 5, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 19 | 416 | 533 |
| WSH | 215 | 15 | 06 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:26WSHZdeno CharaAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:37WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Jakub Vrana, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:35WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 12:37BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 6:08BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Jakub Zboril, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:07BOSCraig SmithAssists: Jeremy Lauzon, Nick Ritchie · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:23BOSBrandon CarloGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly, Chris Wagner · Slap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 18:34BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:18BOSKevan Miller: Interference2 min
- P1 18:23BOSJakub Zboril: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:07WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P2 4:09WSHGarnet Hathaway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:19BOSJeremy Lauzon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:03BOSDavid Krejci: Interference2 min
- P2 13:51WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:49BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:49WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Smith – Ritchie10:17
xG 0.90–0.32 (73%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:15
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 16–3goals 2–1
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork3:01
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Coyle – Bjork – Kuhlman2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – McAvoy11:00
xG 0.99–0.21 (82%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Miller – Zboril12:03
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 13–2goals 0–1
- Clifton – Carlo11:06
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Oshie – Panik – Sheary8:47
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Sgarbossa – Vrana – Sprong2:45
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Panik2:16
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway8:54
xG 0.13–0.33 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlson11:38
xG 0.33–0.26 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen11:13
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).