Mon, Feb 1, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 08 | 110 | 229 |
| MTL | 310 | 315 | 015 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Josh Anderson, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:10MTLArtturi LehkonenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 8:36VANAdam GaudetteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 16:58MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 7:15MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Nick Suzuki · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 8:40MTLJeff PetryAssists: Corey Perry, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–5
- P2 17:11MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Shea Weber, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–6
- P3 11:49VANJay BeagleAssists: Tyler Motte, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:59MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:54VANTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:44VANTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:03MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:58VANAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:03MTLTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Motte – Virtanen4:56
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander4:34
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Beagle – Motte – MacEwen5:20
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Sutter – Gaudette – MacEwen3:36
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Schmidt15:24
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Hughes2:41
xG 0.01–0.36 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Edler – Chatfield13:56
xG 0.51–0.95 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Toffoli – Kotkaniemi7:33
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki10:10
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault12:12
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans10:23
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson11:19
xG 1.33–0.30 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 3–0
- Weber – Chiarot14:09
xG 1.06–0.29 (78%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Edmundson2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).