Sat, Feb 13, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 110 | 19 | 326 |
| SJS | 011 | 17 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:13VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 9:56VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Cody Glass · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 18:39SJSTomas HertlAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 6:45VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Alec Martinez · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:23VGKZach Whitecloud: Delaying game2 min
- P1 11:30SJSEvander Kane: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:00SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P1 14:00VGKRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:33VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P2 9:17SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:32SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:46VGKReilly Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:46SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:46SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:53VGKAlex Tuch: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:58SJSNikolai Knyzhov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Kolesar – Glass8:37
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:33
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:59
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy8:42
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Coghlan12:11
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo17:42
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud14:06
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Kane – Labanc11:23
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sorensen – Gabriel – Gambrell6:07
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Balcers10:00
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Marleau – Nieto – Donato7:31
xG 0.20–0.86 (19%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson4:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Knyzhov5:33
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic4:21
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).