Tue, Feb 2, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 113 | 414 | 16 | 633 |
| CBJ | 06 | 18 | 212 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33DALJoe PavelskiAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:49DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:41CBJSeth JonesPPAssists: Jack Roslovic, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 5:58DALJamie BennAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 11:30DALDenis GurianovPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 13:59DALRadek FaksaAssists: Blake Comeau, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–1
- P3 3:40CBJMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–2
- P3 7:23CBJDean KukanAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
- P3 18:19DALAlexander RadulovENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:36DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:55CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:54DALMark Pysyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:39CBJPatrik Laine: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Texier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Benn10:28
xG 0.77–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:11
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kero – Caamano – L'Esperance7:50
xG 0.44–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hintz – Gurianov9:29
xG 0.21–0.70 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hanley10:25
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:33
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen15:48
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Domi – Foudy5:14
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Grigorenko – Robinson3:09
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic4:23
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine6:06
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Kukan2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kukan – Gavrikov12:36
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Savard – Werenski14:05
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).