Tue, Feb 2, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 116 | 213 | 339 |
| MTL | 211 | 215 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:53MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Ben Chiarot, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:00MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Brett Kulak, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 4:20VANAntoine RousselAssists: Jay Beagle, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 12:29MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Joel Edmundson, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 15:47MTLTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 0:53VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:18VANTanner PearsonAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
- P3 19:54MTLJeff PetryENAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:56VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:09VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:53VANAntoine Roussel: Kneeing2 min
- P2 7:29MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:03MTLBrett Kulak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:59MTLJosh Anderson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Roussel – Motte2:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette4:23
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Beagle – Motte – MacEwen4:40
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser11:37
xG 0.68–0.76 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Myers2:11
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Chatfield9:42
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Benn – Hughes9:33
xG 0.59–0.63 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault8:07
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki9:47
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Perry – Toffoli – Kotkaniemi8:17
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans10:01
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Mete11:39
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot14:47
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Petry – Edmundson15:42
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).