Tue, Feb 2, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 19 | 112 | 225 |
| EDM | 310 | 110 | 05 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Tyson Barrie, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:45EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P1 14:29EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 5:30EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Evan Bouchard, Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 12:06OTTCedric PaquetteAssists: Thomas Chabot, Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 19:31OTTTim StützleAssists: Derek Stepan, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:32EDMKris Russell: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:38EDMKailer Yamamoto: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:42EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:39OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:08OTTDerek Stepan: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:59EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:28EDMKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Paul – White5:58
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle4:57
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk6:49
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Stützle2:10
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev14:26
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Coburn – Gudbranson11:58
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
- Reilly – Zub9:17
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:56
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Turris – Chiasson – Kahun2:00
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Archibald – Haas9:35
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun11:55
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Lagesson4:14
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Barrie – Nurse14:18
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Russell – Bouchard15:03
xG 0.48–0.39 (56%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).