Wed, Feb 3, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 013 | 212 | 12 | 435 |
| PHI | 08 | 111 | 26 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 15:29PHIKevin HayesAssists: Travis Sanheim, Philippe Myers · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:03PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Travis Sanheim, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:41PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Scott Laughton, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 12:05BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:45BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 0:31BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 10:10BOSAnton Blidh: Holding2 min
- P2 18:25PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:55PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 14:17BOSJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
- P3 17:59PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Bunnaman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:21
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Krejci – Smith – Ritchie10:55
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Coyle – Wagner – Frederic9:37
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Blidh – Bjork8:40
xG 0.11–0.54 (16%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – McAvoy13:30
xG 0.88–0.59 (60%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Miller – Zboril10:56
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Clifton – McAvoy2:59
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Farabee11:34
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hayes – Lindblom – Konecny10:14
xG 0.52–0.60 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Patrick10:34
xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman8:17
xG 0.06–0.40 (13%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Gustafsson11:28
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers16:42
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Braun – Provorov2:12
xG 0.01–0.29 (2%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).