Thu, Mar 4, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 15 | 17 | 218 |
| NYI | 218 | 114 | 213 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25NYINoah DobsonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:21NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:08BUFTaylor HallAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 14:58NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 3:14NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–4
- P3 7:23BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 14:28NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:05BUFDylan Cozens: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:34BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P3 6:17NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:17BUFColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:00BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHall – Eichel – Cozens4:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Reinhart – Olofsson5:12
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Rieder – Cozens6:34
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Rieder2:08
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Bryson14:12
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Jokiharju13:32
xG 0.06–0.52 (11%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin14:39
xG 0.85–1.44 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 1–4
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:47
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal12:22
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:57
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Wahlstrom10:56
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Dobson14:52
xG 1.15–0.53 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield14:39
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:10
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).