Thu, Feb 4, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 6, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 214 | 110 | 216 | 11 | 641 |
| FLA | 214 | 310 | 011 | 01 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:02NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 10:09FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P1 15:48NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 0:54FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 6:50NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 8:01FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 15:54FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 17:54NSHRoman JosiAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 19:03NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Nick Cousins, Erik Haula · Tip-in, 0.32 xG5–5
- OT 4:00NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:33FLAAleksi Heponiemi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:09FLAEetu Luostarinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:36NSHDante Fabbro: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:02FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:53NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:07NSHRocco Grimaldi: Interference2 min
- P2 10:21NSHViktor Arvidsson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:54FLAFrank Vatrano: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Johansen – Cousins – Arvidsson6:01
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Trenin6:23
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:13
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Haula – Grimaldi – Tolvanen3:34
xG 0.04–0.60 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Benning5:12
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm2:33
xG 0.03–0.01 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:32
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg8:33
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov11:18
xG 0.90–0.32 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Connolly – Vatrano – Luostarinen11:29
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Acciari – Heponiemi7:58
xG 0.15–0.71 (17%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nutivaara13:11
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Yandle – Gudas11:24
xG 0.94–0.52 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad15:29
xG 0.61–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).