Thu, Feb 4, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 18 | 15 | 319 |
| TOR | 212 | 311 | 214 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake Muzzin, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:24VANTanner PearsonAssists: Elias Pettersson, Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 10:15TORJason SpezzaPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:04TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 3:26VANBo HorvatAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 8:44TORJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Nic Petan, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 17:56TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 4:34TORJason SpezzaAssists: William Nylander, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 8:14VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 11:37TORMitch MarnerAssists: Zach Bogosian, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:25VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:56VANTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:39TORNic Petan: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:09VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:37VANBrock Boeser: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:55TORAlexander Kerfoot: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 7:53TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P3 16:59TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:59VANJordie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Pettersson – Hoglander8:51
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Sutter – Roussel – Gaudette4:10
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser11:32
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
- Beagle – Motte – Virtanen9:23
xG 0.14–0.80 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Chatfield16:57
xG 0.30–0.81 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
- Myers – Schmidt16:13
xG 0.47–1.20 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Benn – Hughes11:29
xG 0.15–1.17 (12%)attempts 4–14goals 0–3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Tavares – Nylander10:06
xG 1.25–0.16 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Petan8:58
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews11:49
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Vesey – Kerfoot – Mikheyev10:56
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Rielly6:19
xG 0.99–0.01 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly13:31
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl9:40
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).