Thu, Feb 4, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 07 | 06 | 124 |
| WPG | 010 | 311 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:04CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Juuso Välimäki · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:31WPGMason AppletonAssists: Adam Lowry, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 13:59WPGKyle ConnorGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 19:09WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 18:38WPGMason AppletonENAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:09WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
- P1 7:17WPGKyle Connor: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:22CGYNikita Nesterov: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:29WPGPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P2 8:30CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- P3 12:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:46CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Leivo – Mangiapane7:55
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Gaudreau – Monahan2:49
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Simon7:31
xG 0.02–0.47 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube11:09
xG 0.13–0.63 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev2:25
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki13:55
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin13:44
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Connor11:29
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Lewis – Vesalainen – Gustafsson4:19
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton9:31
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Ehlers12:48
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk14:51
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Morrissey14:55
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Stanley10:30
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).