Wed, Feb 24, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 25 | 39 | 625 |
| COL | 010 | 110 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:21COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:31MINZach PariseAssists: Mathew Dumba, Marcus Foligno · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:11MINMarcus FolignoSHGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 3:00COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 11:56MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 12:59MINNico SturmAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 17:32MINNico SturmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:01COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:19MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:44MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:59COLBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:18MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:57MINIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Bjugstad – Sturm8:00
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Fiala – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:57
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Parise – Foligno – Hartman10:59
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov10:28
xG 0.36–0.84 (30%)attempts 8–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:44
xG 1.33–0.70 (65%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:04
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Soucy13:23
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 5–16goals 2–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Compher – Nichushkin8:19
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Jost – O'Connor6:42
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Calvert – Kadri – Donskoi9:10
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:27
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar10:00
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Graves – Girard4:48
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Graves – Timmins6:20
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).