Fri, Feb 5, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 08 | 210 | 223 |
| PHI | 07 | 04 | 113 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:27PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P3 12:01BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P3 12:28BOSSean KuralyGWGAssists: Anders Bjork, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:26BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P1 8:38PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:50BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:50PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:22BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:22PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P1 14:28BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:03BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:16PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:25BOSJakub Zboril: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:57BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:03BOSCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:28
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic6:25
xG 0.29–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Bjork5:20
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Blidh – Bjork3:32
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – McAvoy13:54
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Zboril – Carlo2:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Clifton – Carlo11:51
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Konecny – Patrick9:06
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Farabee8:13
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Hayes13:08
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman6:28
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Hagg10:22
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim14:19
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov3:16
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).