Fri, Feb 5, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 012 | 27 | 229 |
| VGK | 39 | 215 | 012 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:32VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 10:40VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: William Karlsson, Nicolas Hague · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 1:35VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 7:03VGKCody GlassPPAssists: William Karlsson, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–5
- P3 7:47LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Dustin Brown, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 13:33LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:48LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:56VGKZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:06LAKAustin Strand: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21LAKJaret Anderson-Dolan: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:13LAKJaret Anderson-Dolan: Holding2 min
- P3 12:30VGKChandler Stephenson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:02
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Anderson-Dolan5:46
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Frk – Kempe – Vilardi5:06
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Amadio – Wagner6:37
xG 0.14–0.81 (15%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Anderson18:41
xG 0.27–0.71 (28%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Maatta – Strand16:01
xG 0.24–0.90 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:41
xG 1.28–0.12 (92%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:10
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Tuch – Roy – Glass10:53
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek10:13
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud18:01
xG 0.76–0.21 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 3–1
- Martinez – Theodore15:07
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Holden – Coghlan11:49
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).