Sat, Mar 27, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 114 | 03 | 227 |
| BOS | 013 | 18 | 215 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01BUFSam ReinhartPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 11:41BOSMatt GrzelcykAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:12BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Steven Fogarty, Henri Jokiharju · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 5:22BOSNick RitchieAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Jakub Zboril · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 16:10BOSCraig SmithGWGAssists: David Krejci, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:16BOSConnor Clifton: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:06BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:59BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:54BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:15BOSCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:00BUFJean-Sebastien Dea: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:38BUFBrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:35BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHall – Reinhart – Mittelstadt6:16
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Fogarty4:52
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Lazar – Dea2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Olofsson – Cozens2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:05
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin12:50
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Bryson11:02
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Smith – Ritchie11:12
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 19–5goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Frederic10:53
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Bjork – Senyshyn7:53
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- McKegg – Wagner – Studnicka2:20
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy12:50
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Lauzon – McAvoy2:45
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Zboril3:53
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).