Thu, Mar 4, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 6, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 26 | 47 | 619 |
| NJD | 114 | 09 | 013 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:12NJDJack HughesAssists: Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:28NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:57NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:23NYRChris KreiderAssists: Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 3:57NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 15:25NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Kevin Rooney · Slap, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 18:27NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.14 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:31NYRFilip Chytil: Interference2 min
- P2 7:52NJDKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:57NYRLibor Hajek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:11NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:11NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:02NYRRyan Lindgren: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:34NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:06NJDMichael McLeod: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Strome – Chytil3:25
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Kreider – Blackwell – Strome6:15
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Lemieux – Howden3:51
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Rooney – Gauthier3:20
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Fox2:12
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:44
xG 0.50–0.35 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
- Johnson – Hajek14:33
xG 0.34–0.97 (26%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes11:30
xG 1.42–0.30 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Zajac – Johnsson – Bratt3:32
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johnsson – Bastian6:14
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bratt – McLeod – Maltsev4:39
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Kulikov14:39
xG 1.51–0.31 (83%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher13:12
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–4goals 1–1
- Severson – Smith15:53
xG 0.70–0.71 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).