Sat, Feb 6, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 114 | 18 | 331 |
| NYI | 29 | 010 | 27 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22NYIJordan EberleAssists: Michael Dal Colle, Noah Dobson · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:43PITPierre-Olivier JosephAssists: Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:45NYIJordan EberleAssists: Brock Nelson, Michael Dal Colle · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 19:44PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 3:19PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 8:23NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin · Snap, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 17:16NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.34 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:16NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P2 4:16PITMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P3 16:15PITTeddy Blueger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel16:51
xG 1.79–0.31 (85%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Blueger – McCann – Tanev3:00
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Blueger – Tanev2:13
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Lafferty – O'Connor4:41
xG 0.16–0.28 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Ruhwedel11:16
xG 0.78–0.45 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Letang – Joseph17:49
xG 1.11–0.97 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 3–1
- Marino – Joseph2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Nelson – Dal Colle12:13
xG 1.06–1.00 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal3:16
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:19
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal11:01
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Dobson11:54
xG 0.97–0.48 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield15:23
xG 0.60–0.67 (47%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).