Wed, Apr 14, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 314 | 04 | 428 |
| STL | 18 | 011 | 215 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:28COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Liam O'Brien, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:20STLVince DunnPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:52COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Liam O'Brien, Conor Timmins · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 5:17COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 11:17COLBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Tyson Jost, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 5:55STLMike HoffmanAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 16:44STLMike HoffmanPPAssists: David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:40COLRyan Graves: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:03STLJake Walman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:38COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:05STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:46COLTyson Jost: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Compher – Bellemare5:33
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:42
xG 0.47–0.71 (40%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Saad – Nichushkin – Jost7:20
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Kadri – Burakovsky9:46
xG 0.14–0.52 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Timmins7:56
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Toews – Girard11:56
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar3:17
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:42
xG 0.82–0.33 (72%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Bozak – Sanford5:59
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Clifford – Barbashev – Kyrou4:10
xG 0.08–0.34 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Blais13:54
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 6–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko8:56
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug11:58
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Parayko – Walman4:25
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).