Sat, Feb 6, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 010 | 111 | 128 |
| TOR | 211 | 112 | 28 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42TORWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 14:04TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 7:36TORZach HymanAssists: Mikko Lehtonen, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 1:28TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–4
- P3 3:16TORWayne SimmondsAssists: Mikko Lehtonen, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 17:56VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:19VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:03VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:42TORZach Hyman: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:02VANTyler Myers: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:18TORJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:15VANTyler Motte: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:34TORZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:21TORJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson6:46
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Bailey – Hoglander4:49
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Pettersson – Hoglander4:09
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte8:13
xG 0.24–0.88 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Chatfield6:56
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Benn – Hughes5:47
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:45
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews13:12
xG 1.55–0.34 (82%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Petan6:53
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Tavares – Nylander9:23
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Vesey – Kerfoot – Mikheyev8:01
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Lehtonen10:38
xG 1.41–0.31 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Muzzin – Holl13:08
xG 0.98–0.17 (85%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:27
xG 1.08–0.68 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).