Sat, Feb 6, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 4, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 217 | 05 | 210 | 432 |
| CGY | 13 | 216 | 39 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56CGYElias LindholmAssists: Dillon Dube, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:53EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: William Lagesson, Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:29EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:04CGYMilan LucicAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 4:58CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 1:18EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 2:56CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 5:16CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 8:55EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Dominik Kahun, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 10:57CGYSam BennettAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:10CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:35CGYJoakim Nordstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26CGYJoakim Nordstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27EDMConnor McDavid: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:40EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:16CGYElias Lindholm: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:16EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P3 12:05EDMKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:31CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:38
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Archibald – Khaira – McDavid2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Neal – Turris – Kassian7:17
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun10:01
xG 0.29–1.13 (21%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Koekkoek3:45
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Bouchard9:29
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Barrie – Nurse14:21
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 1–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Mangiapane11:09
xG 1.05–0.29 (79%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube12:14
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett10:25
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Rinaldo – Froese – Nordstrom2:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin12:50
xG 0.99–0.55 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 3–1
- Giordano – Andersson12:09
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki9:00
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).