Sun, Feb 7, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 36 | 39 | 723 |
| WSH | 215 | 215 | 07 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:11WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:36WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 18:33PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 2:29PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Joel Farabee, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 4:08WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 7:50PHIRobert HaggAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 16:36PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 19:03WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 0:31PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Michael Raffl, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 17:51PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Joel Farabee, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.23 xG6–4
- P3 18:38PHISean CouturierENAssists: Ivan Provorov, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.52 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:48PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 4:38WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P2 13:17WSHRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:14WSHZdeno Chara: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Raffl3:57
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Farabee12:21
xG 0.82–0.77 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Aube-Kubel – Lindblom – Patrick2:51
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Hayes – Konecny9:42
xG 0.37–0.52 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov2:05
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Braun – Gostisbehere13:14
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Gustafsson – Hagg12:25
xG 0.28–0.66 (30%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:50
xG 1.25–0.43 (74%)attempts 24–14goals 3–2
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:19
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Maillet – Sheary – Sprong7:32
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Panik – Carr7:14
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlson16:48
xG 1.05–0.29 (79%)attempts 24–11goals 1–1
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk14:22
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Orlov – Jensen12:37
xG 0.84–0.56 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).