Sun, Feb 7, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 015 | 29 | 215 | 439 |
| FLA | 012 | 012 | 113 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:58DETMarc StaalAssists: Sam Gagner, Troy Stecher · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 17:02DETGivani SmithGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 2:09FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Anton Stralman, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 9:11DETRobby FabbriAssists: Givani Smith, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P3 17:18DETVladislav NamestnikovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 19:32DETVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:32FLAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:38DETGivani Smith: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 12:38FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:38DETGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:38FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:47DETSam Gagner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Fabbri – Smith4:43
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Namestnikov – Erne7:00
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Gagner – Namestnikov3:39
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stecher15:17
xG 1.00–0.28 (78%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Djoos – Hronek4:15
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Merrill2:02
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov9:56
xG 0.84–0.29 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wennberg – Vatrano2:38
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Vatrano – Tippett – Luostarinen2:24
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Luostarinen6:39
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Ekblad16:34
xG 0.81–0.82 (49%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Gudas – Ekblad2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Juulsen14:25
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).