Sun, Feb 7, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 16 | 313 | 27 | 626 |
| CBJ | 29 | 13 | 210 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Seth Jones, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:32CARBrock McGinnAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 15:34CBJRiley NashAssists: Nick Foligno, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 7:23CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Jordan Staal, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 14:24CBJNick FolignoAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, David Savard · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 16:35CARBrett PesceAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jesper Fast · Snap, 0.01 xG3–3
- P2 18:45CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.40 xG4–3
- P3 2:08CBJMax DomiAssists: Scott Harrington, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 5:33CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 10:37CARDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.01 xG6–4
- P3 19:03CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Seth Jones, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:01CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:24CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:04CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:04CBJMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:04CARNino Niederreiter: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:13CBJPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:02CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 13:01CARJesper Fast: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:21CARDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Teravainen9:47
xG 0.97–0.34 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- McGinn – Aho – Svechnikov10:09
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Staal – Dzingel – Foegele9:01
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Fast – Martinook – Geekie4:56
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:13
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Skjei13:01
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Fleury9:19
xG 0.31–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Texier9:14
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Jenner – Foudy8:07
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Atkinson – Roslovic – Laine11:01
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nash – Robinson9:58
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Jones2:53
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Kukan12:48
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Savard – Gavrikov13:59
xG 0.27–0.67 (28%)attempts 3–10goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).